Weird RNG

[Sanger]

Am I imagining it or is the RNG in this game unusually weighted? It seems like I miss 95% shots/throws an awful lot. Without any detailed output for most of the game's rolls I can't tell whether or not it's confirmation bias caused by the fact that missing important shots in the middle of a fight often results in death, but I would swear black and blue that there's something funky going on. I see a lot of the same rolls in combat inits, too.

[Wildan]

You are imagining it, it's called selective perception. When RNG works in your favor you're taking it for granted and not making further notice. When you get unlucky there are usually consequences so it creates a discordance with your expectations. 95% is not a guarantee, it's a probability and that's it.

Still to this day I remember one game session where I made a half dozen or so super steel plates, and each time I'd come to pick it up they would be 70-ish quality. Getting unlucky is a part of the game.

[Sanger]

95% is not a guarantee, it's a probability and that's it.

Yes, but the probability of missing three 95% shots in a row is extremely low, as is the probability of rolling 1 on a combat initiative three times in a row.

I know that selective perception is a possibility, but I also know that pseudorandom number generators can be deliberately or nondeliberately manipulated into returning similar results repeatedly - say for example if they restart their seeding every time the game is loaded. I'm curious about whether something like this might be occurring.

[chimaera]

But does the displayed percentage also take enemy dodge or evasion into account? Or is it just "to hit" chance?

(I am asking, because I actually don't know how the displayed combat info works, but the percentages to miss seemed to work okay with my mage. At the beginning, when the fireball psi ability had maybe 50% chance to land, it would miss quite often, but once it got to 95%, only very rarely.)

[Wildan]

Yes, but the probability of missing three 95% shots in a row is extremely low, as is the probability of rolling 1 on a combat initiative three times in a row.

There is a huge difference between missing 95% shots an awful lot as you said before, which is purely subjective, and missing three 95% shots in a row which is indeed unlikely but not impossible. The chance is 0.0125%. Statistically it means that on average every 8000 of 95% shots will yield 3 misses in a row which is, considering how many 95% shots you make over the course of all your playthroughs, very likely to happen a couple of times at least.

You can do a test on how reliable RNG is. Take any burst weapon with several hundered bullets to the shooting range in SGS 2nd level. Get in point blank distance to the target, make sure your displayed CtH is really 95%, fire all of your bullets and read the statistics on the console and see if it's even 1% off from 95%.

[hayaku]

I'm curiously about this too...

Particularly when it comes to crossbows, something feels *really* off about the stated percentage and actual hit chances...

Mind you I have played numerous isometric games with RNG implementation and never really felt this before, even my previous psi build on underrail felt pretty good, in that the probability felt quite fair.

just this crossbow build... making me feel like I'm going insane. Night vision seems to fix this, but I seriously wonder if their isn't a bug somewhere in how the % is being calculated?

Just going on my gut instincts....

So far without night vision on, most 95% shots have felt a lot more like 70% shots, while most 70% shots have felt like 50% shots. And yes, the brain can detect this and yet it can also factor in confirmation bias and *still* notice this 

I'm wondering if dodge and evasion aren't being double counted or something... Only seems to happen on human targets.

[Tygrende]

I'm just going to leave this here...